March 19 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a one-week high on Wednesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and a second drop in daily output.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 19.5 cents, or 4.8%, to settle at $4.247 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 11.
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The price increase occurred despite forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected with the weather forecast to remain seasonally mild through early April.
That decline in demand should reduce the amount of gas utilities need to pull from storage in coming weeks.
Gas stockpiles, however, were already around 11% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS]
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.
On a daily basis, output over the past two days was on track to drop by around 2.8 bcfd to a preliminary three-week low of 103.9 bcfd on Wednesday.
Traders said the daily drop was likely related to spring pipeline maintenance in Texas and other states, which helped cause spot prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas to turn negative in recent days. The traders noted that preliminary output data is often updated later in the day.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 3.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 106.7 bcfd this week to 109.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global’s (VG.N)
, opens new tab 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.
The U.S. became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
|
Week ended Mar 14 Forecast
|
Week ended Mar 7 Actual
|
Year ago Mar 14
|
Five-year average
Mar 14 |
||
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
|
-3
|
-62
|
+5
|
-31
|
|
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
|
1,695
|
1,698
|
2,331
|
1,897
|
|
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
|
-10.6%
|
-11.9%
|
|||
|
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
This Month Last Year
|
Prior Year Average 2024
|
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
|
|
Henry Hub
|
4.15
|
4.05
|
1.75
|
2.41
|
3.52
|
|
Title Transfer Facility (TTF)
|
13.60
|
13.06
|
8.54
|
10.95
|
15.47
|
|
Japan Korea Marker (JKM)
|
13.11
|
13.18
|
8.95
|
11.89
|
15.23
|
|
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
|
|||||
|
Two-Week Total Forecast
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
Prior Year
|
10-Year Norm
|
30-Year Norm
|
|
U.S. GFS HDDs
|
235
|
240
|
255
|
246
|
244
|
|
U.S. GFS CDDs
|
21
|
19
|
10
|
20
|
17
|
|
U.S. GFS TDDs
|
256
|
259
|
265
|
266
|
261
|
|
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
|
|||||
|
Prior Week
|
Current Week
|
Next Week
|
This Week Last Year
|
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
|
|
|
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
|
|||||
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
|
105.7
|
105.9
|
105.9
|
101.6
|
97.5
|
|
U.S. Imports from Canada
|
9.1
|
8.8
|
9.2
|
N/A
|
7.8
|
|
U.S. LNG Imports
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
|
Total U.S. Supply
|
114.7
|
114.7
|
115.1
|
N/A
|
105.4
|
|
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
|
|||||
|
U.S. Exports to Canada
|
3.8
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
N/A
|
3.3
|
|
U.S. Exports to Mexico
|
6.2
|
5.7
|
6.1
|
N/A
|
5.4
|
|
U.S. LNG Exports
|
15.5
|
15.9
|
15.7
|
13.1
|
11.8
|
|
U.S. Commercial
|
11.2
|
10.3
|
11.3
|
11.9
|
11.8
|
|
U.S. Residential
|
17.2
|
15.4
|
16.6
|
17.7
|
18.3
|
|
U.S. Power Plant
|
25.9
|
24.4
|
24.4
|
30.8
|
27.5
|
|
U.S. Industrial
|
23.7
|
23.4
|
24.0
|
24.5
|
23.8
|
|
U.S. Plant Fuel
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
5.2
|
|
U.S. Pipe Distribution
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
|
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
|
Total U.S. Consumption
|
85.6
|
81.0
|
83.9
|
92.7
|
90.1
|
|
Total U.S. Demand
|
111.1
|
106.7
|
109.8
|
N/A
|
110.6
|
|
N/A is Not Available
|
|||||
|
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
|
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast |
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2024
% of Normal Actual |
2023
% of Normal Actual |
2022
% of Normal Actual |
|
Apr-Sep
|
93
|
93
|
74
|
83
|
107
|
|
Jan-Jul
|
89
|
90
|
76
|
77
|
102
|
|
Oct-Sep
|
90
|
91
|
77
|
76
|
103
|
|
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
|
|||||
|
Week ended Mar 21
|
Week ended Mar 14
|
2024
|
2023
|
2022
|
|
|
Wind
|
18
|
15
|
11
|
10
|
11
|
|
Solar
|
6
|
7
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
|
Hydro
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
Other
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
|
Petroleum
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Natural Gas
|
33
|
34
|
42
|
41
|
38
|
|
Coal
|
14
|
16
|
16
|
17
|
21
|
|
Nuclear
|
20
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
19
|
|
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
|
|||||
|
Hub
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
|||
|
Henry Hub
|
4.17
|
4.15
|
|||
|
Transco Z6 New York
|
3.10
|
3.25
|
|||
|
PG&E Citygate
|
3.83
|
3.86
|
|||
|
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)
|
3.05
|
3.09
|
|||
|
Chicago Citygate
|
3.34
|
3.32
|
|||
|
Algonquin Citygate
|
3.38
|
3.42
|
|||
|
SoCal Citygate
|
3.82
|
3.78
|
|||
|
Waha Hub
|
0.08
|
1.53
|
|||
|
AECO
|
1.45
|
1.61
|
|||
|
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
|
|||||
|
Hub
|
Current Day
|
Prior Day
|
|||
|
New England
|
38.50
|
41.54
|
|||
|
PJM West
|
46.58
|
49.44
|
|||
|
Mid C
|
56.78
|
40.26
|
|||
|
Palo Verde
|
18.00
|
14.36
|
|||
|
SP-15
|
11.01
|
4.83
|
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and Diane Craft
Source: Reuters